A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
